BEIJING—China has achieved a historic economic milestone, with its cumulative annual merchandise trade surplus surpassing $1 trillion for the first time, official customs data released Monday confirms. The record-breaking performance through the first eleven months of the year underscores the resilience and global reorientation of China’s export engine, which has successfully offset a significant contraction in trade with the United States.
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The General Administration of Customs reported that China’s total trade surplus for the January-to-November period reached $1.08 trillion, comfortably exceeding the full-year record set in the previous year.
The November trade figures were particularly strong, with exports climbing 5.9% year-on-year, reversing a marginal contraction in October and beating analysts’ forecasts. This monthly surge pushed the surplus to an impressive $111.7 billion.
Crucially, this growth was fueled almost entirely by demand from markets outside the U.S.
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Exports to the United States saw a steep decline, plunging nearly 29% year-on-year in November, marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit contraction, primarily due to persistent tariff regimes.
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Exports to Europe and emerging markets in the Global South more than compensated for the U.S. downturn. Shipments to the European Union, in particular, rose by a robust 14.8% in November, with strong demand for high-value goods like electric vehicles and green technology.
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Exports to Africa and Latin America also saw double-digit growth, reflecting a successful long-term strategy of market diversification and geopolitical relationship building.
Structural Factors and Global Implications
Analysts attribute China’s soaring surplus to a confluence of structural factors:
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Industrial Competitiveness: China’s dominance in advanced manufacturing, including electric vehicles, solar panels, and key electronic components, has allowed it to capture a greater share of the existing global trade landscape.
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Currency Advantage: The weakening of the Renminbi against major currencies like the Euro has made Chinese-manufactured goods significantly more price-competitive abroad.
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Supply Chain Re-routing: Chinese enterprises have strategically leveraged trans-shipment hubs in Southeast Asia and Mexico to circumvent U.S. tariffs, maintaining access to American retailers while officially re-routing trade flows.
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Weak Domestic Demand: A modest 1.9% rise in imports—below expectations—reflects continued softness in domestic consumption, particularly in the property sector, which widens the trade gap.
The unprecedented surplus gives Beijing significant fiscal latitude to manage domestic economic challenges but is concurrently heightening global trade friction. European leaders have already voiced concern over the deepening trade imbalance, with calls for potential retaliatory measures if the gap with the European Union is not addressed.
“The stronger-than-expected export growth in November demonstrates the resilience and global market competitiveness of China’s exporters,” commented one chief economist, noting that the surplus is a clear signal that the nation’s industrial policy and trade diversification efforts have successfully countered external headwinds.
