HYDERABAD – The Jubilee Hills Assembly by-election, scheduled for November 11, has escalated into a high-stakes, triangular battle that political analysts suggest is too close to call.1 While the Congress has gained a crucial advantage from the AIMIM‘s decision not to field a candidate, the BRS is fighting a desperate battle for survival, and the BJP aims to capitalize on anti-incumbency against the new state government.
The contest between V Naveen Yadav (Congress), Maganti Sunitha Gopinath (BRS), and Lankala Deepak Reddy (BJP) is widely viewed as a referendum on the Congress’s two-year rule and a test of the BRS’s relevance in the Greater Hyderabad region.2
Chances of Winning and Campaign Dynamics
| Party | Candidate | Key Campaign Strategy | Chances of Winning |
| Congress | V Naveen Yadav | Door-to-door, welfare schemes (Six Guarantees), development promises, AIMIM tacit support. | High |
| BRS | Maganti Sunitha Gopinath | ‘Baaki Card’ (Dues Card) on Congress’s unfulfilled promises, sympathy vote, highlighting BRS’s 10-year development. | Medium to High |
| BJP | Lankala Deepak Reddy | Attacks on both Congress and BRS (alleging a secret deal), national narrative, consolidating urban base. | Medium |
Latest Campaign News and Party Impact Analysis
Congress (INC)
- Positive Impact:
- AIMIM’s Tilt: AIMIM President Asaduddin Owaisi has appealed for votes for a young leader for development, which is interpreted as a tacit endorsement of the Congress candidate.3 With over 1.40 lakh minority voters, this consolidation could be the single biggest factor tipping the scales in Congress’s favour.
- Welfare Schemes (Six Guarantees): The ruling party is banking on its existing welfare schemes (e.g., free bus travel for women, free power) and ministers have been busy laying foundation stones for development works, underscoring its commitment to the constituency.4
- High Command Focus: Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy and other top state leaders are actively campaigning, treating the bypoll as a crucial test to strengthen the party’s foothold in Hyderabad.5
- AIMIM’s Tilt: AIMIM President Asaduddin Owaisi has appealed for votes for a young leader for development, which is interpreted as a tacit endorsement of the Congress candidate.3 With over 1.40 lakh minority voters, this consolidation could be the single biggest factor tipping the scales in Congress’s favour.
- Negative Impact:
- Unfulfilled Promises: BRS is using the ‘Baaki Card’ campaign to highlight the delay in implementing the Six Guarantees (e.g., 6$\text{₹}2,500$ for women), which could fuel voter dissatisfaction.7
- Allegations of Secret Deal: BRS and BJP have both accused the Congress and AIMIM of a secret alliance, a charge CM Revanth Reddy countered by accusing BRS and BJP of having their own conspiracy.8
- Unfulfilled Promises: BRS is using the ‘Baaki Card’ campaign to highlight the delay in implementing the Six Guarantees (e.g., 6$\text{₹}2,500$ for women), which could fuel voter dissatisfaction.7
Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS)
- Positive Impact:
- ‘Baaki Card’ Strategy: BRS working president K.T. Rama Rao and other senior leaders are intensely campaigning, distributing the ‘Baaki Card’ to every household.9 This focuses on the perceived failures of the Congress government, aiming to turn disappointment into votes.10
- Sympathy Factor: The BRS hopes to leverage the sympathy factor for the deceased MLA’s widow, Maganti Sunitha Gopinath.11
- Development Narrative: The party is aggressively reminding voters of the development works carried out during its 10-year rule.12
- ‘Baaki Card’ Strategy: BRS working president K.T. Rama Rao and other senior leaders are intensely campaigning, distributing the ‘Baaki Card’ to every household.9 This focuses on the perceived failures of the Congress government, aiming to turn disappointment into votes.10
- Negative Impact:
- Loss of Cadre Morale: Following losses in the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, another defeat in its urban stronghold could severely demoralize its cadre ahead of the GHMC polls.13
- AIMIM Factor: The AIMIM’s support for the Congress is a major blow, as it denies the BRS a significant chunk of minority votes it traditionally received.14
- Loss of Cadre Morale: Following losses in the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, another defeat in its urban stronghold could severely demoralize its cadre ahead of the GHMC polls.13
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
- Positive Impact:
- Urban Momentum: The BJP is confident, citing its strong performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections in the Secunderabad segment, under which Jubilee Hills falls.15
- Targeting Both Rivals: The party is positioning itself as the true opposition by accusing the Congress and BRS of a covert understanding, appealing to voters disillusioned with both regional parties.16
- Star Campaigners: Union Minister G Kishan Reddy and former state chief Bandi Sanjay are actively campaigning to consolidate the urban and BC votes.
- Urban Momentum: The BJP is confident, citing its strong performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections in the Secunderabad segment, under which Jubilee Hills falls.15
- Negative Impact:
- Split of Anti-Congress Vote: Its contest, while necessary for party growth, risks splitting the anti-Congress vote, potentially aiding the ruling party’s candidate.
- Third-Party Status: Despite its best efforts, the BJP is widely perceived as the third contender in a race dominated by the two regional heavyweights.
The Protest Vote Factor
An unprecedented number of candidates (over 200 nominations filed, though scrutiny is ongoing) have entered the fray, primarily as protest candidates.17 These include unemployed youth, farmers affected by the Regional Ring Road (RRR) project, and villagers opposing the Pharma City project.18 While most will likely withdraw, the sheer number reflects a deep dissatisfaction among certain sections of the public, which could lead to significant vote-splitting and further complicate the final result for the main parties.
